61 Days until the World Cup - Answering some questions for casual fans

It's only 61 days until the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil (I knew that without looking it up online, BTW). During the 2010 World Cup, I posted several blogs intended for non-soccer fanatics who were getting swept up in the tournament. I got some very positive feedback 4 years ago, so I'm giving it another go this year.

Here are a few questions casual soccer fans often ask me about the World Cup.

Why do we call it soccer in the US when the rest of the world calls it football (or futbol)?

Brian Phillips wrote a great piece in Slate 4 years ago answering this question. If you don't want to read the whole thing, here's the short answer from the article:

It's an abbreviation of association football. Both soccer and American football come from the same set of precursor sports, which became popular in upper-class English schools in the early 19th century and spread across the Atlantic. All these games involved advancing a ball through an opponent's territory and scoring at the far end, but the rules varied from place to place. Ultimately, the version adopted as standard in the United Kingdom came to be known as association football, while another set of rules won out in the United States. Thus the Americans took to calling their gridiron variety football, and referred to the British sport by the slang term soccer, derived from the soc in association.

Who is the US playing in the World Cup?

The US is playing in what most commentators are calling the "Group of Death." That's a hyperbolic way of saying the US is in the toughest group on the tournament. Their opponents are:

• Ghana - Ranked 38th in the world, but Ghana have knocked the US out of the last 2 World Cups. 
• Portugal - Ranked 3rd in the world, they boast arguably the best player in the world, Cristiano Ronaldo.
• Germany - Ranked 2nd in the world, they have won the World Cup 3 times (only Italy and Brazil have won it more).

The US are ranked 13th. So you can see why this is called the Group of Death. Keep in mind, however, that part of the reason it's considered the most difficult group is because it includes the US. Portugal and Germany would feel a lot better about advancing if, say, Australia (g'day, mates!) were in this group instead of the US.

Can the US advance out of their group?

Yes, if they can earn 4 points. (In soccer, you get 3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie and 0 points for a loss.)

Here's how the results could break the Yanks' way:

Germany ties Portugal
US beats Ghana

US ties Portugal
Germany beats Ghana

Germany beats US
Ghana ties Portugal

That would leave Germany with 7 points, the US with 4, Portugal with 3 and Ghana with 1. The top 2 teams advance, meaning the US and Germany would proceed to the knockout stages.

Who is favored to win the World Cup?

As the host, Brazil are the safest bet. The other favorites are Spain, Germany and Argentina. After that, you could make a case for France, Belgium, Italy, Columbia, Holland and Portugal having a chance.

What other questions do you have about the World Cup or the US team? Post in the comments below.

World Cup: USA v. Ghana

Soccer is not really a game that lends itself to statistics. Time of possession, shots on goal, number of corner kicks are often indicators of how well a team plays, but not always.

Still, there was one number that struck me tonight that tells much of the story of the US's 2010 World Cup:

3 minutes.

That's how long the US team actually held the lead in all 4 of its games. It fell behind and rallied to tie against England and Slovenia. And it was tied for nearly all of the game against Algeria until Landon Donovan scored the game winning goal with about 3 minutes left in the game. And against Ghana today, the US fell behind again and never had the lead.

On the one hand, it's a bit remarkable that a team that rarely played from a position of strength (i.e., having the lead) managed not only to advance to the knock-out round, but to win its group.

But on the other hand, playing from behind or chasing the game-winning goal for 390 minutes was eventually going to catch up with the Americans. And today, they ran out of luck and gas.

The game today was a thoroughly winnable game. If the US played the entire game like they did 2nd half they very well may have won. But problems that plagued the team throughout the tournament came back to bite them today, and the team wasn't able to overcome them.

• The US gave away another early goal.
• Rico Clark had another sub-par day in midfield. Bradley recognized this and used Clark's yellow card as an excuse to sub him out.
• The US forwards failed to score. Bradley never found a suitable partner for Josy Altidore, who did well holding the ball and drawing fouls, but at some point your starting forward has to score a goal.

On balance, the US World Cup campaign should be considered a qualified success. Topping Group C and losing in overtime in the round of 16 is better that traditional powerhouses like France and Italy did. But this was a game the US should have and could have won. And Uruguay, who will now face Ghana in the next round of games, would have been a tough but beatable opponent.

The following players had a very good/great World Cup:

• Landon Donovan is in the zone right now. Some European club is likely to offer up piles of money to pry him away from MLS.
• Michael Bradley was a monster in the middle of the field. He ran tirelessly, won balls, distributed well, and was a threat near the goal. He may wind up in the English Premier League.
• Benny Feilhaber should have seen more playing time. He may also move to a bigger club.
• Josy Altidore, while he didn't score, was a handful for defenders every minute he was on the field. I lost count, but he may have caused more players to receive yellow cards than any other player in the tournament.
• Steve Cherundolo was arguably the US's most consistent player. He rarely put a wrong foot on defense and contributed to the attack effectively. 
• Maurice Edu seemed to fortify the US every time he was on the field.

These players were a mixed bag:

• Clint Dempsey did score the key goal against England, but that was really a gift from poor Robert Green. He did tons of work, on offense and defense, and had plenty of scoring chances. But I think most would have liked to see more from the US's most dangerous offensive player (besides Donovan).
• Tim Howard game up big in the England game and earned man of the match. And his pin-point pass to Donovan directly set up the last-gasp goal. But there a few times the US defense made mistakes and could have used a dramatic, acrobatic save from Howard.
• Jay Demerit played every minute of the tournament for the US had played in his typically hard-nosed fashion. But mental lapses led to more than one goal.
• Carlos Bocanegra played both left back and center back, but was not as steady as many fans would like their captain to be.
• Jonathan Bornstein is much reviled by many US fans, but he played well when called upon.

Bob Bradley's World Cup was also a mixed bag. It's hard to complain about the US team winning their group and advancing to the knock-out stages. But it's also hard to feel that different player selection might have improved the US's chances. Sticking with Rico Clark and Robbie Findley proved to be a mistake, and giving more playing time to Edu, Feilhaber and Herculez Gomez might have helped the team's ability to hold the ball, be creative and score more goals.

The World Cup may be over for the US, but there are plenty of other compelling teams and games still in store. Here's how I see the rest of the tournament playing out:

Germany over England
Argentina over Mexico
Netherlands over Slovakia
Brazil over Chile
Japan over Paraguay
Spain over Portugal

In the next round:

Uruguay over Ghana
Argentina over Germany
Spain over Japan
Netherlands over Brazil

Final four:

Argentina over Spain
Netherlands over Uruguay

Final

Argentina over Netherlands

And Diego Maradona will run naked through the streets of Buenos Aires while the Dutch suffer yet another World Cup heartbreak.

World Cup: USA v. Algeria

If you didn't watch the game live, I don't know what to tell you.

Or even worse, you followed the game live but gave up before the final whistle and turned the tv/radio/match tracker off. (If you were following the game online you were part of 2nd highest internet traffic day of all-time.) If you gave up on the US team shame on you. Because those guys never, ever quit. They knew that had to win and luck (and the refs) seemed to be against them. But Bob Bradley made aggressive, offensive subs and the US players responded by pushing, pushing, pushing for 90+ minutes.

The US got a bit lucky in the opening minutes when the Algerian cannoned a shot off the crossbar. But the US were extremely unlucky to have yet another goal wrongly disallowed and unlucky not to punch one in during regular time.

Still, the US kept coming and coming, sending wave after wave of attack. And finally, finally, with just minutes left they countered perfectly. A tepid header from Algeria went right into Tim Howard's hands and he immediately initiated a counter-attack by throwing the ball to Donovan.

Donovan charged toward goal with teammates running with him. An Algerian defender hesitated for a moment, considered whether to body-up Donovan, but another US player forced him to retreat. This allowed Donovan the space to pass to Altidore on the right. Altidore slipped a nice pass to the marauding and painfully unlucky Dempsey whose touch toward goal was deflected by the Algerian goalkeeper. But Donovan had intelligently continued his run (remember that this was after 90+ minutes of running his socks off) and smashed the ball into the net. Watching Donovan's tears after the game was incredibly powerful. He and the team had invested so much energy and emotion in all of the games so far that he could barely contain himself.

Nor could. I collapsted on the floor after the goal. I think I aged about 5 years during this game. And that's after aging 5 years during the US vs. Slovenia game.

Obviously I could not be more excited or happy about this. The US won the game and won their group. And they deserved to win. Just think how good the US would be if they finished their chances a little better and if the refs actually made the right calls. No team, with the possible exceptions of Brazil and Argentina, wants to play the US. They fight, claw, scratch, run, tackle and bleed until the final whistle blows.

Here's a good post-game take from Grant Wahl of Sports Illustrated. His most interesting point is about who the US could play next: "If Germany can win Group D, the U.S. would probably meet Serbia or Ghana, avoiding Germany, with the winner of the U.S.’s second-round game to face the victor of Uruguay-South Korea. Long story short: Which quadrant would you rather be in, the one with Serbia/Ghana-Uruguay-South Korea or the one with Germany-Argentina-Mexico? I think we know the answer to that one."

That's all I've got for now. Don't give up on this team. Take off work or school and watch the rest of their games. Because they won't give up.

World Cup: The Next Game for the US

I won't pretend to know much of anything about the team the US will face on Friday (9:30 am EST, ESPN): Slovenia. The New York Times sees a squad very similar to the US: a physical, well-organized, defensive team that depends on the counterattack to score.

All I can tell you is that the US should expect to tie and probably even win. And the players know the importance of getting a result out of this match. "In all likelihood, if we lose, we're out of the tournament. That's the reality of the situation," explained Landon Donovan.

Tim Howard is apparently fine and is expected to play on Friday, although in interviews he has been pretty cagey about revealing the extent of his injuries. I just hope he's healthy enough to play and play well.

There is the possibility that the US will field a more attack-minded lineup against Slovenia. Ricardo Clark might make way for Benny Feilhaber or Jose Torres, both of whom are less defensive players, more comfortable on the ball and better passers than Clark. Any other changes to the US starting 11 would be a bit of a surprise, although Stuart Holden might get a start as well.

England and Algeria play later on Friday, so the US can really put pressure on England by securing a win. England, it should be said, have an easier opponent in Algeria, who lost to Slovenia on Sunday. In fact, should England win, Algeria would be all-but-eliminated and might phone in their game against the US next week. But it 2002, the US only needed a tie against Poland, who had been effectively eliminated before their last game. The US ended up needing (and getting) a surprise win by S. Korea against Portgual to advance to the knock out stages.

I should also note there has been a shift in the coverage of England in the press and I think it reflects the pressure the English players are under. Before the tournament, most of the chatter in England was about how far the team could go in the tournament. But since last week's tie, the focus has been on what England will have to do to get out of the group. Each team should still expect to advance, but each will have to keep its nerve on Friday.


Finally, the World Cup has been the topic of much conversation in the Ferris home and the games are frequently on TV. Yesterday morning, while Meg and I were getting ready for work in the bathroom, John was lying on our bed in his pajamas watching the early game. Every few minutes he would announce the score to keep me and Meg in the loop. "It's still zero to zero. No goals yet!" Unfortunately we all missed the thrilling end to that game (when New Zealand equalized in the dying seconds of the match) but I'm sure John will be watching more games with us as the tournament continues.

World Cup: Odds and Ends

Video: If you haven't seen this "Write the Future" ad by Nike, watch it now:



It stars Didier Drogba, (who may be out of the WC), Wayne Rooney (England's best player), Italy's Fabio Cannavaro (hero of Italy's 2006 WC triumph), Frank Ribery (France's livewire winger), Ronaldinho (Brazil's toothy playmaker who didn't make the WC squad -- whoops!) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal's star/primadonna). For soccer fans it's a complete treat, with lots of little inside jokes and cameos (like the US's Landon Donovan and Tim Howard). And for non-soccer fans there's Homer Simpson ("Ronal-D'oh!").

The conceit of the ad is that it shows different soccer start playing and imagining what will happen to them if they make the play (like get a stature erected their honor) or don't (get fat, grow a beard and live in a trailer park).

The Ball: Much has been made about the new Adidas ball. Many plays have come forward to complain about the new ball, saying it's too light and moves around a lot in flight. Goalkeepers are particularly cranky about it. This happens every WC. A new ball is introduced just before the tournament, players complain about it and then the better teams go on to win anyway.

Obviously I haven't tried to new ball myself (they sell for more than $100 -- no thanks). But if they really are trickier to deal with, we might see a few more goals and a few more upsets. What's not to like?

The US Team: The Yanks beat the Socceroos (Australia) 3-1 on Saturday in their final warm-up match. The US team looked good, if a bit profligate, in attack and shaky on defense. Meanwhile, England played a warm-up game against a South African club team and won 3-0. Reports suggest England did not look strong, but it's hard for me to say much more having not watched the game.

As far as Saturday's game, England are the clear favorites. And they should be. But, the US has to be hoping to get a draw out of this game. A win would be massive and a loss would be a bit of a disappointment (the US could still advance with a loss). In fact, both teams may play fairly conservatively as both of them expect to get out of the group and would probably be happy to walk away with a tie and no injuries. I'll break down both teams later this week.

World Cup: Goalkeeper Tim Howard

If Tim Howard had been born in Manchester instead of New Jersey, he would be starting for the English World Cup team. He's that good. Here's a nice video about him from the New Yorker of all places (I haven't read the story referenced in the video since I haven't received the issue yet).