61 Days until the World Cup - Answering some questions for casual fans

It's only 61 days until the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil (I knew that without looking it up online, BTW). During the 2010 World Cup, I posted several blogs intended for non-soccer fanatics who were getting swept up in the tournament. I got some very positive feedback 4 years ago, so I'm giving it another go this year.

Here are a few questions casual soccer fans often ask me about the World Cup.

Why do we call it soccer in the US when the rest of the world calls it football (or futbol)?

Brian Phillips wrote a great piece in Slate 4 years ago answering this question. If you don't want to read the whole thing, here's the short answer from the article:

It's an abbreviation of association football. Both soccer and American football come from the same set of precursor sports, which became popular in upper-class English schools in the early 19th century and spread across the Atlantic. All these games involved advancing a ball through an opponent's territory and scoring at the far end, but the rules varied from place to place. Ultimately, the version adopted as standard in the United Kingdom came to be known as association football, while another set of rules won out in the United States. Thus the Americans took to calling their gridiron variety football, and referred to the British sport by the slang term soccer, derived from the soc in association.

Who is the US playing in the World Cup?

The US is playing in what most commentators are calling the "Group of Death." That's a hyperbolic way of saying the US is in the toughest group on the tournament. Their opponents are:

• Ghana - Ranked 38th in the world, but Ghana have knocked the US out of the last 2 World Cups. 
• Portugal - Ranked 3rd in the world, they boast arguably the best player in the world, Cristiano Ronaldo.
• Germany - Ranked 2nd in the world, they have won the World Cup 3 times (only Italy and Brazil have won it more).

The US are ranked 13th. So you can see why this is called the Group of Death. Keep in mind, however, that part of the reason it's considered the most difficult group is because it includes the US. Portugal and Germany would feel a lot better about advancing if, say, Australia (g'day, mates!) were in this group instead of the US.

Can the US advance out of their group?

Yes, if they can earn 4 points. (In soccer, you get 3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie and 0 points for a loss.)

Here's how the results could break the Yanks' way:

Germany ties Portugal
US beats Ghana

US ties Portugal
Germany beats Ghana

Germany beats US
Ghana ties Portugal

That would leave Germany with 7 points, the US with 4, Portugal with 3 and Ghana with 1. The top 2 teams advance, meaning the US and Germany would proceed to the knockout stages.

Who is favored to win the World Cup?

As the host, Brazil are the safest bet. The other favorites are Spain, Germany and Argentina. After that, you could make a case for France, Belgium, Italy, Columbia, Holland and Portugal having a chance.

What other questions do you have about the World Cup or the US team? Post in the comments below.

World Cup: U-S-A! U-S-A!

ESPN's the Sports Guy made a good point about rooting for sports teams a few years ago. I can't find a like to the column but his point was this: when we root for a sports team, we're almost always rooting for the jersey the athletes are wearing. Because the guys playing for the team are just employees -- it's their job. And chances are, in a couple of seasons these same guys you were rooting for so vociferously will be playing for your most hated rival.

This happened in baseball when Johnny Damon switched from the Red Sox to the Yankees. It happened in MLS when Landon Donovan moved from San Jose to LA. There are still examples of guys who play for the same team their entire careers and become very strongly identified with that franchise, like Kobe Bryant with the Lakers or Peyton Manning with the Colts.

But how many Packer fans ever thought they'd see Brett Favre trotting onto the field wearing the purple and gold of the Minnesota Vikings? Favre was considered the embodiment of the Green Bay Packers. But really, he was just wearing a green and yellow jersey for many years. It was his job.

This is leading up to why the World Cup is such a special, unique sporting event. Nearly every single player in the WC makes his living (and a very handsome one) playing for his club team. Just like in American sports, a player will leave one team for more money to play on another team. Cristiano Ronaldo became the highest paid player in the world when he left Man U for Real Madrid. Holland's Wesley Snjeider has played for Ajax, Real Madrid and Inter Milan (3 of the biggest clubs in the world) just in the last 4 years.

But if you ask any player in the world, his biggest dream is to play and do well in the World Cup. It's the pinnacle of any soccer player's career and no player is ever considered among the best unless he succeeds at the World Cup. Yes, the players often have large incentives built into their contracts with their countires. But I bet most players would play in the World Cup for free.

In one sense, the WC resembles the Olympics in that athletes compete for the love of the sport and their country. But in the WC, the stakes are much higher. If you are an American fan rooting for American athletes in the Olympics, you have lots of options. If Apollo Ono doesn't do well in speed skating, maybe Lindsey Vonn will medal in the downhill.

But if your team doesn't advance out of the group stage, the World Cup is over after 3 games. And once you get to the knock out stages, one bad game (or even one bad bounce of the ball) and the tournament is over.

In that way, the World Cup is much like the game of soccer itself. The wait for the World Cup (every 4 years)  can be agonizing; the wait for a goal in a game can be agonizing. Some teams never make it to the World Cup; some teams never score in a game. A World Cup can turn for a team in an instant; a close game can turn for a team in an instant. It's periods of tension punctuated by brief moments of brilliance or agony. You can tell this when you see the look on the face of a player who has just scored a vital goal: the combination or euphoria, relief, joy, exhilaration and disbelief is unlike any other feeling in sports.

Now, the US doesn't fit the model of most other countries on the planet when it comes to soccer. There are some hard core fans (like me) who follow US soccer religiously. But we are clearly in the minority. So the World Cup is the one time in an American soccer player's life when he can actually feel the entire country get behind him and his team. This World Cup is generating unprecedented coverage in the US and the players seem to be aware of that. And they know that a win against England on Saturday, while not critical for their chances to advance from the group, has the potential to sweep much of the country up in soccer fever in a way that it hasn't since the Women's World Cup in 1999.

I broke down the English team the other day. Here's how I think the US team will look and perform on Saturday (2:30 pm EST on ABC).

Goalkeeper: Tim Howard is the clear #1 keeper and one of the top 10 in the world. He will have to play well to keep the English at bay.

Defense: Steve Cherundolo is a cagey veteran who will play on the right and venture forward into offense. Jay Demerit is a Matt Damon look alike who is a tough and tenacious center back. He will be paired with Oguchi Onyewu (Gooch) or Clarence Goodson. The towering (6'4" 220 lbs) Gooch is still recovering from a serious knee injury and may not play. If he does, his form will go a long way to determine how well the US defense can fend off Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. Carlos Bocanegra is the left back and captain of the team. He is not especially fast and will use his positioning and experience to manage speedy English wingers.

Midfield: This is the strength of the US team. Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey will attack from the wings. They are also prone to cutting inside, surging forward toward goal and switching sides. Their form will dictate the success of the American attack.  The center of the park will be manned by the coach's son Michael Bradley. He is a smart, tough ball-winner who can also shoot well from distance. Any charges of nepotism are completely unfounded. Teaming with Bradley will likely be Maurice Edu or Ricardo Clark. Both are rangy tacklers who will work with Bradley to break up English attacks down the middle. They are fairly similar players whose primary weaknesses are holding the ball under pressure and making pin-point passes.

Forward: 20-year old Josy Altidore seems to be recovered from last week's ankle injury and will likley start. He is a big strong kid who is used to the rough and tumble English game. Red-hot Edson Buddle is who I expect to play along side him. But it would not surprise me to see the fleet Robbie Findley instead. Findley's speed may be used to stretch the English defense.  Findley would also be an option off the bench, as would Herculez Gomez, who was kicked to the curb by MLS a year ago but found new life in the Mexican league. He has scored primarily as a sub for his Mexican team and has done the same for the US in recent exhibition games.

If every US player is healthy and if they play a relatively mistake-free and smart game, the US team can beat England. Last summer, in fact, the US beat Spain, who was the #1 ranked team in the World at the time, in the Confederations Cup. So on their day, the US players can compete with the world's best. That said, I (and most US fans) would be happy with a tie. A loss would be a disappointment, but would not end the US WC hopes.

Whatever the outcome on Saturday, I still expect the US to advance out of their group. Failure to advance would be a crushing disappointment. 

Here's who I think will advance from all the WC groups:

Group A: South Africa, Mexico
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria
Group C: England, US
Group D: Germany, Serbia
Group E: Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay
Group G: Brazil, Portugal (unless Drogba pulls a Willis Reed, then Ivory Coast instead of Portugal)
Group H: Spain, Switzerland