Why isn't Landon Donovan going to the World Cup?

A friend of mine who is an avid soccer fan and a huge Landon Donovan supporter sent me this email over the weekend:

I’m still just stunned over the Donovan decision, Ferris. I hear he’s been injured and not playing well this year, and I can certainly understand that he wouldn’t start – and may not even play during the tournament. But leaving him off the entire 23-man roster? Inconceivable. Absolutely inconceivable. No one could ever convince me that Kyle Beckerman, Demarcus Beasley or even Brad Davis are better picks. I’m curious as to how my favorite football fan feels about this. Tell me your thoughts some time. In the meantime… 

FIRE JURGEN KLINSMANN!

(And you know me. I never call for the coach’s head. Well, until now.)

So here are my thoughts about Donovan not being on the roster.

1. It's not just about form: Donovan has not been playing great this year. He has struggled to impose himself in games in MLS this year. But there are other players who did make the World Cup roster how have also been struggling (like Josy Altidore). And Donovan has shown an ability in the past to rise up in big moments:



2. It's not just about Donovan's omission, but the players selected instead: It's easy to complain about Donovan not making the team. But then you have to ask yourself: who should have been left home instead? 

Klinsmann considers Donovan a forward (not a midfielder) and he named 4 forwards to the sqaud: Josy Altidore, Aron Johannsson, Clint Dempsey and Chris Wondolowski. Three of those 4 guys are in good form. And Josy is going to start every game as the primary striker for the US, so he wasn't going to be left out. 

3. Can't Donovan play midfield? Why wouldn't Klinsmann bring Donovan to play midfield? This is a tougher question to answer. Donovan may not have the blazing speed he did 4 years ago (he's 32 now). But his vision, passing, shooting and ability to disrupt defenses are all still there. Here, I think, is the strongest case for including Donovan. But, again, who do you leave out? 

He's not really competing against Kyle Beckerman, Michael Bradley or Jermaine Jones. They are all central midfielders, not attacking players (although they can all bring something to the attack when needed).

The remaining midfielders are Alejandro Bedoya, Brad Davis, Mix Diskerud, Julian Green and Graham Zusi.

Bedoya and Zusi are the most similar players to Donovan. They tend to play on the wings, cut inside, whip in crosses and track back on defense. Both are younger and in arguably better form than Donovan. Davis isn't really the same type of player as Donovan; he is a specialist who will be brought in late in games to try to serve in good crosses, free kicks and corner kicks (although Donovan is no slouch at those either).

So that leaves Julian Green. He is an 18-year old German-American who plays in the Bayern Munich system. He's played only a few minutes for Bayern and made his first appearance for the US just a few months ago. He's a highly coveted prospect and has a huge upside. 

But there are rumors that Klinsmann promised Green he would be named to the World Cup team if he promised to play for the US instead of Germany (who he was also eligible to play for).

So it seems to me it came down to Donovan vs. Green. And Klinsmann, rightly or wrongly, elected to go with youth and the future over experience and past success.

He also could have taken Donovan instead of Brad Davis, although Davis is one of the few naturally left-footed players and has easily the most cultured left-food in the player pool.

4. I still think there is more to the story: As you may know, about a year and a half ago, Donovan took a sabbatical from soccer and just cruised around the world. He had been playing high-level soccer for about 14 years straight and just needed a rest and break. Donovan is one of the more introspective players that I've seen and it really didn't surprise me that he did that. 

When he returned, he worked his way back into shape and into the lineups for both the LA Galaxy and the USMNT. Last summer he scored the most goals in the Gold Cup as the US won that tournament. 

But Klinsmann, while seemingly mellow and amicable on the outside, is an intense guy. He was a ruthless, dedicated player who played for the best teams in the world. One of Germany's top strikers during the 1990s, Klinsmann scored in all 6 major international tournaments he participated in, from Euro 1988 to 1998 World Cup. In 1995 Klinsmann came third in the FIFA World Player of the Year award, and in 2004 he was named in the FIFA 100 list of the "125 Greatest Living Footballers."

And I think Klinsmann doesn't like Donovan's attitude. I think there is a severe disconnect between the coach and the greatest US player of all time. I suspect he believes Donovan should have pushed and challenged himself more during his career and doesn't want what he considers a "soft" player on his roster.

I also think Klinsmann is keeping one eye on the 2018 World Cup by naming Julian Green (along with other young players like DeAndre Yedlin and John Brooks); they will gain invaluable experience this summer. Klinsmann recently got a contract extension that keeps him on as manager though the next World Cup. 

5. I would have named Donovan to the roster. But there is no guarantee that the US will qualify for the 2018 World Cup. And if you want to get out of what is the most difficult group in 2014, you need a player like Donovan on the team. Maybe not as a starter. But if the US needs a goal late in a game to advance out of the group or to the next round, I know I would want to be able to look down the bench, see Donovan there and be able to tell him, "Get warmed up."

And I would have taken Donovan instead of DeAndre Yedlin (a defender). I don't think Yedlin will play any minutes in the World Cup - he's too inexperienced and raw. 

6. Klinsmann has put the focus on himself: No matter how the US does, Klinsmann has made himself the focus of the team. He will get tons of credit if the US gets out of the group and advances beyond that. He will also be severely criticized if they do poorly.

And that, in the end, is the silver lining of this whole Donovan controversy. In 1998, the US coach cut his captain, John Harkes, just before the World Cup in France. It barely made a ripple in the sports news landscape. But in 2014, Donovan's omission was a big story all over the news (not just the sports pages). The United States is now a proper soccer nation. And that is a happy byproduct of this event. I just hope all the American viewers who tune into this summer's World Cup aren't disappointed by the US team's performance. And if they are disappointed, they will all blame Klinsmann. 

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Here is the full US roster, BTW:

Goalkeepers (3): Brad Guzan, Tim Howard, Nick Rimando

Defenders (8): DaMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, John Brooks, Geoff Cameron, Timmy Chandler, Omar Gonzalez, Fabian Johnson, DeAndre Yedlin

Midfielders (8): Kyle Beckerman, Alejandro Bedoya, Michael Bradley, Brad Davis, Mix Diskerud, Julian Green, Jermaine Jones, Graham Zusi


Forwards (4): Jozy Altidore, Clint Dempsey, Aron Johannsson, Chris Wondolowski

Show me the money

How much to American players make for playing in the World Cup? SI's Grant Wahl looked into this and published a great column online. Turns out, making the roster provides a nice bonus, but the farther the team advances, the more money the players will make.

If you don't feel like reading the whole thing, here are the highlights:

• If you are a player on the final 23-man World Cup roster, you make a minimum of $76,000.
• FIFA gives out team bonuses in larger and larger amounts depending on how far the team advances in the tournament. The country's soccer federation can then distribute the money as it sees fit among the players. According to Wahl, in 2002, when the US advanced to the quarterfinals, "each player received $203,000. I have been told the figure would be more than double that amount if the team repeated the 2002 run in 2014."
• And here are the salaries of the MLS players who are competing for a spot on the final roster. As you can see, there is a pretty wide disparity among the players' salaries and just an extra $76,000 would make a big difference for some of the lower-paid players:
  
• Clint Dempsey: $6,695,189
• Michael Bradley: $6,500,000
• Landon Donovan: $4,583,333
• Omar González: $1,250,000
• Chris Wondolowski: $650,000
• Maurice Edu: $650,000
• Graham Zusi: $398,250
• Brad Davis: $392,062
• Kyle Beckerman: $378,750
• Clarence Goodson: $342,000
• Michael Parkhurst: $300,000
• Brad Evans: $293,666
• Nick Rimando: $235,833
• Matt Besler: $200,000
• DeAndre Yedlin: $92,000

61 Days until the World Cup - Answering some questions for casual fans

It's only 61 days until the 2014 World Cup kicks off in Brazil (I knew that without looking it up online, BTW). During the 2010 World Cup, I posted several blogs intended for non-soccer fanatics who were getting swept up in the tournament. I got some very positive feedback 4 years ago, so I'm giving it another go this year.

Here are a few questions casual soccer fans often ask me about the World Cup.

Why do we call it soccer in the US when the rest of the world calls it football (or futbol)?

Brian Phillips wrote a great piece in Slate 4 years ago answering this question. If you don't want to read the whole thing, here's the short answer from the article:

It's an abbreviation of association football. Both soccer and American football come from the same set of precursor sports, which became popular in upper-class English schools in the early 19th century and spread across the Atlantic. All these games involved advancing a ball through an opponent's territory and scoring at the far end, but the rules varied from place to place. Ultimately, the version adopted as standard in the United Kingdom came to be known as association football, while another set of rules won out in the United States. Thus the Americans took to calling their gridiron variety football, and referred to the British sport by the slang term soccer, derived from the soc in association.

Who is the US playing in the World Cup?

The US is playing in what most commentators are calling the "Group of Death." That's a hyperbolic way of saying the US is in the toughest group on the tournament. Their opponents are:

• Ghana - Ranked 38th in the world, but Ghana have knocked the US out of the last 2 World Cups. 
• Portugal - Ranked 3rd in the world, they boast arguably the best player in the world, Cristiano Ronaldo.
• Germany - Ranked 2nd in the world, they have won the World Cup 3 times (only Italy and Brazil have won it more).

The US are ranked 13th. So you can see why this is called the Group of Death. Keep in mind, however, that part of the reason it's considered the most difficult group is because it includes the US. Portugal and Germany would feel a lot better about advancing if, say, Australia (g'day, mates!) were in this group instead of the US.

Can the US advance out of their group?

Yes, if they can earn 4 points. (In soccer, you get 3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie and 0 points for a loss.)

Here's how the results could break the Yanks' way:

Germany ties Portugal
US beats Ghana

US ties Portugal
Germany beats Ghana

Germany beats US
Ghana ties Portugal

That would leave Germany with 7 points, the US with 4, Portugal with 3 and Ghana with 1. The top 2 teams advance, meaning the US and Germany would proceed to the knockout stages.

Who is favored to win the World Cup?

As the host, Brazil are the safest bet. The other favorites are Spain, Germany and Argentina. After that, you could make a case for France, Belgium, Italy, Columbia, Holland and Portugal having a chance.

What other questions do you have about the World Cup or the US team? Post in the comments below.

World Cup: USA v. Ghana

Soccer is not really a game that lends itself to statistics. Time of possession, shots on goal, number of corner kicks are often indicators of how well a team plays, but not always.

Still, there was one number that struck me tonight that tells much of the story of the US's 2010 World Cup:

3 minutes.

That's how long the US team actually held the lead in all 4 of its games. It fell behind and rallied to tie against England and Slovenia. And it was tied for nearly all of the game against Algeria until Landon Donovan scored the game winning goal with about 3 minutes left in the game. And against Ghana today, the US fell behind again and never had the lead.

On the one hand, it's a bit remarkable that a team that rarely played from a position of strength (i.e., having the lead) managed not only to advance to the knock-out round, but to win its group.

But on the other hand, playing from behind or chasing the game-winning goal for 390 minutes was eventually going to catch up with the Americans. And today, they ran out of luck and gas.

The game today was a thoroughly winnable game. If the US played the entire game like they did 2nd half they very well may have won. But problems that plagued the team throughout the tournament came back to bite them today, and the team wasn't able to overcome them.

• The US gave away another early goal.
• Rico Clark had another sub-par day in midfield. Bradley recognized this and used Clark's yellow card as an excuse to sub him out.
• The US forwards failed to score. Bradley never found a suitable partner for Josy Altidore, who did well holding the ball and drawing fouls, but at some point your starting forward has to score a goal.

On balance, the US World Cup campaign should be considered a qualified success. Topping Group C and losing in overtime in the round of 16 is better that traditional powerhouses like France and Italy did. But this was a game the US should have and could have won. And Uruguay, who will now face Ghana in the next round of games, would have been a tough but beatable opponent.

The following players had a very good/great World Cup:

• Landon Donovan is in the zone right now. Some European club is likely to offer up piles of money to pry him away from MLS.
• Michael Bradley was a monster in the middle of the field. He ran tirelessly, won balls, distributed well, and was a threat near the goal. He may wind up in the English Premier League.
• Benny Feilhaber should have seen more playing time. He may also move to a bigger club.
• Josy Altidore, while he didn't score, was a handful for defenders every minute he was on the field. I lost count, but he may have caused more players to receive yellow cards than any other player in the tournament.
• Steve Cherundolo was arguably the US's most consistent player. He rarely put a wrong foot on defense and contributed to the attack effectively. 
• Maurice Edu seemed to fortify the US every time he was on the field.

These players were a mixed bag:

• Clint Dempsey did score the key goal against England, but that was really a gift from poor Robert Green. He did tons of work, on offense and defense, and had plenty of scoring chances. But I think most would have liked to see more from the US's most dangerous offensive player (besides Donovan).
• Tim Howard game up big in the England game and earned man of the match. And his pin-point pass to Donovan directly set up the last-gasp goal. But there a few times the US defense made mistakes and could have used a dramatic, acrobatic save from Howard.
• Jay Demerit played every minute of the tournament for the US had played in his typically hard-nosed fashion. But mental lapses led to more than one goal.
• Carlos Bocanegra played both left back and center back, but was not as steady as many fans would like their captain to be.
• Jonathan Bornstein is much reviled by many US fans, but he played well when called upon.

Bob Bradley's World Cup was also a mixed bag. It's hard to complain about the US team winning their group and advancing to the knock-out stages. But it's also hard to feel that different player selection might have improved the US's chances. Sticking with Rico Clark and Robbie Findley proved to be a mistake, and giving more playing time to Edu, Feilhaber and Herculez Gomez might have helped the team's ability to hold the ball, be creative and score more goals.

The World Cup may be over for the US, but there are plenty of other compelling teams and games still in store. Here's how I see the rest of the tournament playing out:

Germany over England
Argentina over Mexico
Netherlands over Slovakia
Brazil over Chile
Japan over Paraguay
Spain over Portugal

In the next round:

Uruguay over Ghana
Argentina over Germany
Spain over Japan
Netherlands over Brazil

Final four:

Argentina over Spain
Netherlands over Uruguay

Final

Argentina over Netherlands

And Diego Maradona will run naked through the streets of Buenos Aires while the Dutch suffer yet another World Cup heartbreak.

World Cup: USA v. Algeria

If you didn't watch the game live, I don't know what to tell you.

Or even worse, you followed the game live but gave up before the final whistle and turned the tv/radio/match tracker off. (If you were following the game online you were part of 2nd highest internet traffic day of all-time.) If you gave up on the US team shame on you. Because those guys never, ever quit. They knew that had to win and luck (and the refs) seemed to be against them. But Bob Bradley made aggressive, offensive subs and the US players responded by pushing, pushing, pushing for 90+ minutes.

The US got a bit lucky in the opening minutes when the Algerian cannoned a shot off the crossbar. But the US were extremely unlucky to have yet another goal wrongly disallowed and unlucky not to punch one in during regular time.

Still, the US kept coming and coming, sending wave after wave of attack. And finally, finally, with just minutes left they countered perfectly. A tepid header from Algeria went right into Tim Howard's hands and he immediately initiated a counter-attack by throwing the ball to Donovan.

Donovan charged toward goal with teammates running with him. An Algerian defender hesitated for a moment, considered whether to body-up Donovan, but another US player forced him to retreat. This allowed Donovan the space to pass to Altidore on the right. Altidore slipped a nice pass to the marauding and painfully unlucky Dempsey whose touch toward goal was deflected by the Algerian goalkeeper. But Donovan had intelligently continued his run (remember that this was after 90+ minutes of running his socks off) and smashed the ball into the net. Watching Donovan's tears after the game was incredibly powerful. He and the team had invested so much energy and emotion in all of the games so far that he could barely contain himself.

Nor could. I collapsted on the floor after the goal. I think I aged about 5 years during this game. And that's after aging 5 years during the US vs. Slovenia game.

Obviously I could not be more excited or happy about this. The US won the game and won their group. And they deserved to win. Just think how good the US would be if they finished their chances a little better and if the refs actually made the right calls. No team, with the possible exceptions of Brazil and Argentina, wants to play the US. They fight, claw, scratch, run, tackle and bleed until the final whistle blows.

Here's a good post-game take from Grant Wahl of Sports Illustrated. His most interesting point is about who the US could play next: "If Germany can win Group D, the U.S. would probably meet Serbia or Ghana, avoiding Germany, with the winner of the U.S.’s second-round game to face the victor of Uruguay-South Korea. Long story short: Which quadrant would you rather be in, the one with Serbia/Ghana-Uruguay-South Korea or the one with Germany-Argentina-Mexico? I think we know the answer to that one."

That's all I've got for now. Don't give up on this team. Take off work or school and watch the rest of their games. Because they won't give up.

World Cup: USA v. Slovenia

Worst. Ref. Ever. 

I try (often in vain) to be objective when I evaluate referees in soccer games. For example, at first glance I thought the second Slovenia goal was offside. But when I watched the replay, I had to admit that the refs had got it right: the US had kept the Slovenian onside and the goal rightfully counted.

With that preface, let me say that the decision by the ref at the end of the game to wave off the game-winning goal was one of the worst decisions I've seen in a lifetime of watching soccer. Disgraceful. Shocking. Diabolical. Awful. Shameful.

To recap: The US had just tied it on a wonderful goal by the coach's son, Michael Bradley. Donovan curled a lovely free-kick into the Slovenia box, where it was met by midfielder Maurice Edu (not to be confused with Freddy Adu). The ball flew past the goalkeeper for what appeared to be the game winning goal. Inexplicably, the ref whistled -- well, I don't know what he whistled for. There was no offside -- not even close. If there were any fouls to be called, they were all on the Slovenians. Michael Bradley, for example, had a defender's arms wrapped around him from behind.

And I'm not alone here. The Guardian writes: "Quite why the referee's whistle had gone is not clear - there was no offside and the only fouls being perpetrated were by Slovenians holding on to assorted American jerseys. Mystifying decision."

And Sports Illustrated: "This was an all-time game marred by an all-time officiating blunder."

There were other poor calls as well. Robbie Findley (who had a poor game overall) was given a yellow card for hitting the ball with his face in the first half.  And Altidore was hauled down just outside the penalty box in the second half with a pretty clear path to goal; that should have been a red card, not just a yellow. On the other side, Clint Dempsey was lucky not to get a yellow in the first minute of the match for an elbow to the head of a Slovenian player.

Aside from the frustration at not getting the win they deserved, the American team has to wonder why they are so poor in the first phase of their games. They've coughed up two goals in the first 15 minutes of both games and it's tough to go far in a tournament making mistakes like that. I blame the coach's insertion of Jose Torres, who is skillful on the ball and takes nice free kicks, but both Slovenian goals were the result of poor midfield tracking of players.Bradley recognized this and put in Edu in the second half.

But full credit to the US for fighting back in the second half. You might not see a better goal than the one Donovan scored to open the first half. If the goalkeeper had just stood his ground, he probably would have stopped the ball with his face and suffered a concussion. Instead, he flinched and the ball nearly ripped the roof off the net.

The second goal was a thing of beauty. Donovan played a nice ball into Altidore, who did well to win the aerial battle and play the ball into space. Second half sub Herculez Gomez ran across the penalty box, dragging a defender with him. That run left space for Bradley to run onto the ball. Many players would have blasted the ball into the keeper's gut or over the crossbar. But Bradley hit it with with a wonderful combination of touch and strength and arched it over the helpless keeper.

So obviously the US would have loved to get a win. And they deserved the win, showing great heart and spirit in the second half and scoring what should have been a goal.

The US is not eliminated with this result. In fact, even if they had lost they would still be alive to make the second round. But a win would have put them in a very good position to make the knock-out stage. And I think that the best outcome for the US in the England v. Algeria match would be a 0-0 tie (but I'm not sure). That game starts 2:30 EST on ESPN2. 

Watch ESPN video highlights of today's game here.

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Yesterday, I made a big deal at work to make sure nobody told me the scores of the Greece v. Nigeria and Mexico v. France games. I was taping them at home and planning to watch with the family during dinner.

I sat down to watch the early game (Greece v. Nigeria) with Meg, Mary and John ready for a night of World Cup soccer with the whole family. Mary took a bit of her dinner, then asked, "Daddy, did you know that Mexico beat France today in the World Cup?"

I stared at her blankly for a minute, then admitted that I actually hadn't heard that yet. "Mr. Williams, my tennis coach, told me today at camp." She smiled warmly, thinking she had really impressed me with her soccer knowledge. I didn't have the heart to tell her that I had been avoiding the score all day. And it turns out our DVR hadn't recorded the Mexico v. France game anyway.

World Cup: U-S-A! U-S-A!

ESPN's the Sports Guy made a good point about rooting for sports teams a few years ago. I can't find a like to the column but his point was this: when we root for a sports team, we're almost always rooting for the jersey the athletes are wearing. Because the guys playing for the team are just employees -- it's their job. And chances are, in a couple of seasons these same guys you were rooting for so vociferously will be playing for your most hated rival.

This happened in baseball when Johnny Damon switched from the Red Sox to the Yankees. It happened in MLS when Landon Donovan moved from San Jose to LA. There are still examples of guys who play for the same team their entire careers and become very strongly identified with that franchise, like Kobe Bryant with the Lakers or Peyton Manning with the Colts.

But how many Packer fans ever thought they'd see Brett Favre trotting onto the field wearing the purple and gold of the Minnesota Vikings? Favre was considered the embodiment of the Green Bay Packers. But really, he was just wearing a green and yellow jersey for many years. It was his job.

This is leading up to why the World Cup is such a special, unique sporting event. Nearly every single player in the WC makes his living (and a very handsome one) playing for his club team. Just like in American sports, a player will leave one team for more money to play on another team. Cristiano Ronaldo became the highest paid player in the world when he left Man U for Real Madrid. Holland's Wesley Snjeider has played for Ajax, Real Madrid and Inter Milan (3 of the biggest clubs in the world) just in the last 4 years.

But if you ask any player in the world, his biggest dream is to play and do well in the World Cup. It's the pinnacle of any soccer player's career and no player is ever considered among the best unless he succeeds at the World Cup. Yes, the players often have large incentives built into their contracts with their countires. But I bet most players would play in the World Cup for free.

In one sense, the WC resembles the Olympics in that athletes compete for the love of the sport and their country. But in the WC, the stakes are much higher. If you are an American fan rooting for American athletes in the Olympics, you have lots of options. If Apollo Ono doesn't do well in speed skating, maybe Lindsey Vonn will medal in the downhill.

But if your team doesn't advance out of the group stage, the World Cup is over after 3 games. And once you get to the knock out stages, one bad game (or even one bad bounce of the ball) and the tournament is over.

In that way, the World Cup is much like the game of soccer itself. The wait for the World Cup (every 4 years)  can be agonizing; the wait for a goal in a game can be agonizing. Some teams never make it to the World Cup; some teams never score in a game. A World Cup can turn for a team in an instant; a close game can turn for a team in an instant. It's periods of tension punctuated by brief moments of brilliance or agony. You can tell this when you see the look on the face of a player who has just scored a vital goal: the combination or euphoria, relief, joy, exhilaration and disbelief is unlike any other feeling in sports.

Now, the US doesn't fit the model of most other countries on the planet when it comes to soccer. There are some hard core fans (like me) who follow US soccer religiously. But we are clearly in the minority. So the World Cup is the one time in an American soccer player's life when he can actually feel the entire country get behind him and his team. This World Cup is generating unprecedented coverage in the US and the players seem to be aware of that. And they know that a win against England on Saturday, while not critical for their chances to advance from the group, has the potential to sweep much of the country up in soccer fever in a way that it hasn't since the Women's World Cup in 1999.

I broke down the English team the other day. Here's how I think the US team will look and perform on Saturday (2:30 pm EST on ABC).

Goalkeeper: Tim Howard is the clear #1 keeper and one of the top 10 in the world. He will have to play well to keep the English at bay.

Defense: Steve Cherundolo is a cagey veteran who will play on the right and venture forward into offense. Jay Demerit is a Matt Damon look alike who is a tough and tenacious center back. He will be paired with Oguchi Onyewu (Gooch) or Clarence Goodson. The towering (6'4" 220 lbs) Gooch is still recovering from a serious knee injury and may not play. If he does, his form will go a long way to determine how well the US defense can fend off Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. Carlos Bocanegra is the left back and captain of the team. He is not especially fast and will use his positioning and experience to manage speedy English wingers.

Midfield: This is the strength of the US team. Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey will attack from the wings. They are also prone to cutting inside, surging forward toward goal and switching sides. Their form will dictate the success of the American attack.  The center of the park will be manned by the coach's son Michael Bradley. He is a smart, tough ball-winner who can also shoot well from distance. Any charges of nepotism are completely unfounded. Teaming with Bradley will likely be Maurice Edu or Ricardo Clark. Both are rangy tacklers who will work with Bradley to break up English attacks down the middle. They are fairly similar players whose primary weaknesses are holding the ball under pressure and making pin-point passes.

Forward: 20-year old Josy Altidore seems to be recovered from last week's ankle injury and will likley start. He is a big strong kid who is used to the rough and tumble English game. Red-hot Edson Buddle is who I expect to play along side him. But it would not surprise me to see the fleet Robbie Findley instead. Findley's speed may be used to stretch the English defense.  Findley would also be an option off the bench, as would Herculez Gomez, who was kicked to the curb by MLS a year ago but found new life in the Mexican league. He has scored primarily as a sub for his Mexican team and has done the same for the US in recent exhibition games.

If every US player is healthy and if they play a relatively mistake-free and smart game, the US team can beat England. Last summer, in fact, the US beat Spain, who was the #1 ranked team in the World at the time, in the Confederations Cup. So on their day, the US players can compete with the world's best. That said, I (and most US fans) would be happy with a tie. A loss would be a disappointment, but would not end the US WC hopes.

Whatever the outcome on Saturday, I still expect the US to advance out of their group. Failure to advance would be a crushing disappointment. 

Here's who I think will advance from all the WC groups:

Group A: South Africa, Mexico
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria
Group C: England, US
Group D: Germany, Serbia
Group E: Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay
Group G: Brazil, Portugal (unless Drogba pulls a Willis Reed, then Ivory Coast instead of Portugal)
Group H: Spain, Switzerland