World Cup: USA v. Ghana

Soccer is not really a game that lends itself to statistics. Time of possession, shots on goal, number of corner kicks are often indicators of how well a team plays, but not always.

Still, there was one number that struck me tonight that tells much of the story of the US's 2010 World Cup:

3 minutes.

That's how long the US team actually held the lead in all 4 of its games. It fell behind and rallied to tie against England and Slovenia. And it was tied for nearly all of the game against Algeria until Landon Donovan scored the game winning goal with about 3 minutes left in the game. And against Ghana today, the US fell behind again and never had the lead.

On the one hand, it's a bit remarkable that a team that rarely played from a position of strength (i.e., having the lead) managed not only to advance to the knock-out round, but to win its group.

But on the other hand, playing from behind or chasing the game-winning goal for 390 minutes was eventually going to catch up with the Americans. And today, they ran out of luck and gas.

The game today was a thoroughly winnable game. If the US played the entire game like they did 2nd half they very well may have won. But problems that plagued the team throughout the tournament came back to bite them today, and the team wasn't able to overcome them.

• The US gave away another early goal.
• Rico Clark had another sub-par day in midfield. Bradley recognized this and used Clark's yellow card as an excuse to sub him out.
• The US forwards failed to score. Bradley never found a suitable partner for Josy Altidore, who did well holding the ball and drawing fouls, but at some point your starting forward has to score a goal.

On balance, the US World Cup campaign should be considered a qualified success. Topping Group C and losing in overtime in the round of 16 is better that traditional powerhouses like France and Italy did. But this was a game the US should have and could have won. And Uruguay, who will now face Ghana in the next round of games, would have been a tough but beatable opponent.

The following players had a very good/great World Cup:

• Landon Donovan is in the zone right now. Some European club is likely to offer up piles of money to pry him away from MLS.
• Michael Bradley was a monster in the middle of the field. He ran tirelessly, won balls, distributed well, and was a threat near the goal. He may wind up in the English Premier League.
• Benny Feilhaber should have seen more playing time. He may also move to a bigger club.
• Josy Altidore, while he didn't score, was a handful for defenders every minute he was on the field. I lost count, but he may have caused more players to receive yellow cards than any other player in the tournament.
• Steve Cherundolo was arguably the US's most consistent player. He rarely put a wrong foot on defense and contributed to the attack effectively. 
• Maurice Edu seemed to fortify the US every time he was on the field.

These players were a mixed bag:

• Clint Dempsey did score the key goal against England, but that was really a gift from poor Robert Green. He did tons of work, on offense and defense, and had plenty of scoring chances. But I think most would have liked to see more from the US's most dangerous offensive player (besides Donovan).
• Tim Howard game up big in the England game and earned man of the match. And his pin-point pass to Donovan directly set up the last-gasp goal. But there a few times the US defense made mistakes and could have used a dramatic, acrobatic save from Howard.
• Jay Demerit played every minute of the tournament for the US had played in his typically hard-nosed fashion. But mental lapses led to more than one goal.
• Carlos Bocanegra played both left back and center back, but was not as steady as many fans would like their captain to be.
• Jonathan Bornstein is much reviled by many US fans, but he played well when called upon.

Bob Bradley's World Cup was also a mixed bag. It's hard to complain about the US team winning their group and advancing to the knock-out stages. But it's also hard to feel that different player selection might have improved the US's chances. Sticking with Rico Clark and Robbie Findley proved to be a mistake, and giving more playing time to Edu, Feilhaber and Herculez Gomez might have helped the team's ability to hold the ball, be creative and score more goals.

The World Cup may be over for the US, but there are plenty of other compelling teams and games still in store. Here's how I see the rest of the tournament playing out:

Germany over England
Argentina over Mexico
Netherlands over Slovakia
Brazil over Chile
Japan over Paraguay
Spain over Portugal

In the next round:

Uruguay over Ghana
Argentina over Germany
Spain over Japan
Netherlands over Brazil

Final four:

Argentina over Spain
Netherlands over Uruguay

Final

Argentina over Netherlands

And Diego Maradona will run naked through the streets of Buenos Aires while the Dutch suffer yet another World Cup heartbreak.

World Cup: Final 16

I'm not going to quit my day job. I only got both the advancing teams right in 2 groups 

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea
Group C: England, US
Group D: Germany, Serbia, Ghana
Group E: Netherlands, Cameroon, Japan
Group F: Italy, Paraguay, Slovakia
Group G: Brazil, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Chile


I guess 10/16 isn't too bad.

Here are the remaining match-ups (remember that it's the knock-out phase; if a game is tied after 90 minutes, they play an extra 30 minutes; if it's still tied, they have a penalty kick shoot-out):

Uruguay

vs.

South Korea

-

Jun 26 10:00am (ET) on ESPN

United States

vs.

Ghana

-

Jun 26 2:30pm (ET) on ABC

Germany

vs.

England

-

Jun 27 10:00am (ET) on ESPN

Argentina

vs.

Mexico

-

Jun 27 2:30pm (ET) on ABC

Netherlands

vs.

Slovakia

-

Jun 28 10:00am (ET) on ESPN

Brazil

vs.

Chile

-

Jun 28 2:30pm (ET) on ESPN

Paraguay

vs.

Japan

-

Jun 29 10:00am (ET) on ESPN

Spain

vs.

Portugal

-

Jun 29 2:30pm (ET) on ESPN

The game to watch this weekend is clearly US v. Ghana. I would call this game a pick 'em. My heart says the US will win, but Ghana is tough to break down defensively. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to penalty kicks, unless the US forwards start scoring (all the US goals thus far have been scored by midfielders).

But there are plenty of other mouth-watering matches. Germany v. England, for historical (both geopolitical and soccer) reasons, is a must-see. Argentina v. Mexico is a rematch of a thrilling 2006 World Cup encounter. Finally, Spain v. Portugal is another high-powered game.

World Cup: USA v. Algeria

If you didn't watch the game live, I don't know what to tell you.

Or even worse, you followed the game live but gave up before the final whistle and turned the tv/radio/match tracker off. (If you were following the game online you were part of 2nd highest internet traffic day of all-time.) If you gave up on the US team shame on you. Because those guys never, ever quit. They knew that had to win and luck (and the refs) seemed to be against them. But Bob Bradley made aggressive, offensive subs and the US players responded by pushing, pushing, pushing for 90+ minutes.

The US got a bit lucky in the opening minutes when the Algerian cannoned a shot off the crossbar. But the US were extremely unlucky to have yet another goal wrongly disallowed and unlucky not to punch one in during regular time.

Still, the US kept coming and coming, sending wave after wave of attack. And finally, finally, with just minutes left they countered perfectly. A tepid header from Algeria went right into Tim Howard's hands and he immediately initiated a counter-attack by throwing the ball to Donovan.

Donovan charged toward goal with teammates running with him. An Algerian defender hesitated for a moment, considered whether to body-up Donovan, but another US player forced him to retreat. This allowed Donovan the space to pass to Altidore on the right. Altidore slipped a nice pass to the marauding and painfully unlucky Dempsey whose touch toward goal was deflected by the Algerian goalkeeper. But Donovan had intelligently continued his run (remember that this was after 90+ minutes of running his socks off) and smashed the ball into the net. Watching Donovan's tears after the game was incredibly powerful. He and the team had invested so much energy and emotion in all of the games so far that he could barely contain himself.

Nor could. I collapsted on the floor after the goal. I think I aged about 5 years during this game. And that's after aging 5 years during the US vs. Slovenia game.

Obviously I could not be more excited or happy about this. The US won the game and won their group. And they deserved to win. Just think how good the US would be if they finished their chances a little better and if the refs actually made the right calls. No team, with the possible exceptions of Brazil and Argentina, wants to play the US. They fight, claw, scratch, run, tackle and bleed until the final whistle blows.

Here's a good post-game take from Grant Wahl of Sports Illustrated. His most interesting point is about who the US could play next: "If Germany can win Group D, the U.S. would probably meet Serbia or Ghana, avoiding Germany, with the winner of the U.S.’s second-round game to face the victor of Uruguay-South Korea. Long story short: Which quadrant would you rather be in, the one with Serbia/Ghana-Uruguay-South Korea or the one with Germany-Argentina-Mexico? I think we know the answer to that one."

That's all I've got for now. Don't give up on this team. Take off work or school and watch the rest of their games. Because they won't give up.

World Cup: Win and you're in

The English soccer team visited an orphanage today. "It's heartbreaking to see their sad little faces with no hope," said Jamal, age 6. (Thanks to Sean for sending that my way.)

The England team seems to be in a bit of a crisis mode. Although, they can always be heartened by the fact that they're not the French team. Here's what's happened to Les Blues:

• They garnered a meager 1 point out of 2 games, putting the team in danger of missing the next round.
• Had their veteran striker sent home after an expletive-laced tirade at half time of their loss to Mexico.
• Another player give the finger to a group of reporters.
• The entire team refused to practice this weekend.
• The team director has resigned.
• Beleaguered coach Raymond Domenech had to separate a player and the fitness coach at a practice that was not interrupted by the players refusing to participate.
• French star Thierry Henry announced he was leaving the team immediately after their next game to join the New York Red Bulls of MLS.

OK, I made that last one up, but it actually might happen; Henry has long been linked with a move to the Red Bulls.

Of course, for anyone who believes in karma, this is all very pleasant to watch unfold. The French only qualified for the World Cup thanks to a very obvious handball on Henry that led to a goal which knocked out the Irish.  Read more about the French meltdown (including videos) from Dirty Tackle.

Anyway, back to Group C.  The Americans (0-0-2) are second in with two points, trailing Slovenia (1-0-1) and ahead of England (0-0-2) on goals scored going into Wednesday’s first-round finale against Algeria (0-1-1). England will match up against Slovenia. The US would advance with a win and possibly with a draw. The games will be played simultaneously, so find a bar with multiple TVs, get a TV with picture-in-picture or set up your computer next to your TV to stream one of the games.

As for Friday's game, while I'm still irate over the horrible call that cost the US the game-winning goal, the US put themselves in that spot with poor play in the first half. If the US played the entire 90 minutes with the poise and intensity they did in the second half, they could beat anyone. Maybe coach Bradley can arrange for the scoreboard in the stadium to show the score as 1-0 Algeria when the game starts, so the players will think they're already a goal down.

Finally, happy Father's Day to all the dads watching, playing in and coaching in the World Cup.

World Cup: USA v. Slovenia

Worst. Ref. Ever. 

I try (often in vain) to be objective when I evaluate referees in soccer games. For example, at first glance I thought the second Slovenia goal was offside. But when I watched the replay, I had to admit that the refs had got it right: the US had kept the Slovenian onside and the goal rightfully counted.

With that preface, let me say that the decision by the ref at the end of the game to wave off the game-winning goal was one of the worst decisions I've seen in a lifetime of watching soccer. Disgraceful. Shocking. Diabolical. Awful. Shameful.

To recap: The US had just tied it on a wonderful goal by the coach's son, Michael Bradley. Donovan curled a lovely free-kick into the Slovenia box, where it was met by midfielder Maurice Edu (not to be confused with Freddy Adu). The ball flew past the goalkeeper for what appeared to be the game winning goal. Inexplicably, the ref whistled -- well, I don't know what he whistled for. There was no offside -- not even close. If there were any fouls to be called, they were all on the Slovenians. Michael Bradley, for example, had a defender's arms wrapped around him from behind.

And I'm not alone here. The Guardian writes: "Quite why the referee's whistle had gone is not clear - there was no offside and the only fouls being perpetrated were by Slovenians holding on to assorted American jerseys. Mystifying decision."

And Sports Illustrated: "This was an all-time game marred by an all-time officiating blunder."

There were other poor calls as well. Robbie Findley (who had a poor game overall) was given a yellow card for hitting the ball with his face in the first half.  And Altidore was hauled down just outside the penalty box in the second half with a pretty clear path to goal; that should have been a red card, not just a yellow. On the other side, Clint Dempsey was lucky not to get a yellow in the first minute of the match for an elbow to the head of a Slovenian player.

Aside from the frustration at not getting the win they deserved, the American team has to wonder why they are so poor in the first phase of their games. They've coughed up two goals in the first 15 minutes of both games and it's tough to go far in a tournament making mistakes like that. I blame the coach's insertion of Jose Torres, who is skillful on the ball and takes nice free kicks, but both Slovenian goals were the result of poor midfield tracking of players.Bradley recognized this and put in Edu in the second half.

But full credit to the US for fighting back in the second half. You might not see a better goal than the one Donovan scored to open the first half. If the goalkeeper had just stood his ground, he probably would have stopped the ball with his face and suffered a concussion. Instead, he flinched and the ball nearly ripped the roof off the net.

The second goal was a thing of beauty. Donovan played a nice ball into Altidore, who did well to win the aerial battle and play the ball into space. Second half sub Herculez Gomez ran across the penalty box, dragging a defender with him. That run left space for Bradley to run onto the ball. Many players would have blasted the ball into the keeper's gut or over the crossbar. But Bradley hit it with with a wonderful combination of touch and strength and arched it over the helpless keeper.

So obviously the US would have loved to get a win. And they deserved the win, showing great heart and spirit in the second half and scoring what should have been a goal.

The US is not eliminated with this result. In fact, even if they had lost they would still be alive to make the second round. But a win would have put them in a very good position to make the knock-out stage. And I think that the best outcome for the US in the England v. Algeria match would be a 0-0 tie (but I'm not sure). That game starts 2:30 EST on ESPN2. 

Watch ESPN video highlights of today's game here.

---

Yesterday, I made a big deal at work to make sure nobody told me the scores of the Greece v. Nigeria and Mexico v. France games. I was taping them at home and planning to watch with the family during dinner.

I sat down to watch the early game (Greece v. Nigeria) with Meg, Mary and John ready for a night of World Cup soccer with the whole family. Mary took a bit of her dinner, then asked, "Daddy, did you know that Mexico beat France today in the World Cup?"

I stared at her blankly for a minute, then admitted that I actually hadn't heard that yet. "Mr. Williams, my tennis coach, told me today at camp." She smiled warmly, thinking she had really impressed me with her soccer knowledge. I didn't have the heart to tell her that I had been avoiding the score all day. And it turns out our DVR hadn't recorded the Mexico v. France game anyway.

World Cup: Selected Highlights (and scores!)

Mary asked me once if a soccer player had ever scored with his butt (this was after I had explained to her that you can use any part of your body in soccer except your hands and arms). I told her that I had never actually seen anyone score with his butt, but that I was sure it had happened.

Well, on Wednesday, a player from Chile scored with his butt. You have to watch the replay very carefully, but the ball bounces off a Honduran defender and onto the upper leg/butt area of the Chilean attacker and then into the net. These game highlights are also worth watching for the amazing save made by the Honduran goalkeeper as he scrambles across his goalmouth to keep Honduras in the game (although they went on to lose 1-0). 

The first goal scored by Brazil against N. Korea was an incredible shot, as Maicon waited for the keeper to cheat out a little from his goal then blasted the ball between the goalie and the near post. Unstoppable. But credit to N. Korea for scratching back a late goal to make the final score a respectable 2-1.

Robert Green now has competition for the craziest goal of the tournament from the Switzerland v. Spain match. Iker Casillas, considered the best goalkeeper in the world, and his defenders made a total hash of a long punt from the Swiss keeper, gifting Switzerland the only goal it would need to upset the heavily favored Spanish 1-0.

World Cup: The Next Game for the US

I won't pretend to know much of anything about the team the US will face on Friday (9:30 am EST, ESPN): Slovenia. The New York Times sees a squad very similar to the US: a physical, well-organized, defensive team that depends on the counterattack to score.

All I can tell you is that the US should expect to tie and probably even win. And the players know the importance of getting a result out of this match. "In all likelihood, if we lose, we're out of the tournament. That's the reality of the situation," explained Landon Donovan.

Tim Howard is apparently fine and is expected to play on Friday, although in interviews he has been pretty cagey about revealing the extent of his injuries. I just hope he's healthy enough to play and play well.

There is the possibility that the US will field a more attack-minded lineup against Slovenia. Ricardo Clark might make way for Benny Feilhaber or Jose Torres, both of whom are less defensive players, more comfortable on the ball and better passers than Clark. Any other changes to the US starting 11 would be a bit of a surprise, although Stuart Holden might get a start as well.

England and Algeria play later on Friday, so the US can really put pressure on England by securing a win. England, it should be said, have an easier opponent in Algeria, who lost to Slovenia on Sunday. In fact, should England win, Algeria would be all-but-eliminated and might phone in their game against the US next week. But it 2002, the US only needed a tie against Poland, who had been effectively eliminated before their last game. The US ended up needing (and getting) a surprise win by S. Korea against Portgual to advance to the knock out stages.

I should also note there has been a shift in the coverage of England in the press and I think it reflects the pressure the English players are under. Before the tournament, most of the chatter in England was about how far the team could go in the tournament. But since last week's tie, the focus has been on what England will have to do to get out of the group. Each team should still expect to advance, but each will have to keep its nerve on Friday.


Finally, the World Cup has been the topic of much conversation in the Ferris home and the games are frequently on TV. Yesterday morning, while Meg and I were getting ready for work in the bathroom, John was lying on our bed in his pajamas watching the early game. Every few minutes he would announce the score to keep me and Meg in the loop. "It's still zero to zero. No goals yet!" Unfortunately we all missed the thrilling end to that game (when New Zealand equalized in the dying seconds of the match) but I'm sure John will be watching more games with us as the tournament continues.

World Cup: Fun Stuff (Warning: Results of today's games included)

So if you don't want to know the outcomes of today's games (New Zealand v. Slovakia or Ivory Coast v. Portugal) read no further.

Still with me? Here we go:

Fun Item #1: Later today, one of the strangest match ups in WC history will kick off: Brazil vs. North Korea. Brazil is, of course, a favorite to win the whole thing and its players are known around the world. North Korea's team, much like the country itself, is shrouded in mystery and is a Marmaduke-sized underdog to the Brazilians. I half expect the N. Koreans to line up with 6 defenders, 4 midfielders and no forwards. Here's a video of the N. Korean team working out in a public gym! This game has got strange result written all over it.

Fun Item #2: Earlier today, the most exciting finish of the tournament occurred, when the "just happy to be here" New Zealand team stunned Slovakia. (BTW, New Zealand have the worst nick-name of any team to play in this World Cup: the All-Whites. Apparently it has nothing to do with race or ethnicity. It's a nod to their Rugby team's name, the All-Blacks. Still, the ESPN commentators insisted on calling them Kiwis during the match.) The goal came with just seconds left in injury time as New Zealand were pressing for a tying goal and got one from one of their defenders who had pushed forward. The game finished moments later a 1-1 draw, which was a great result from the team many considered the worst in the tournament. Watch the final goal here.

Fun Item #3: Relive the thrilling goals from the US v. England game -- in LEGO!

Fun Item #4: For the ladies, Kickette offers the 5 hottest US players here.  Or vote for the hottest player in the entire tournament here.(Vote for Gooch!) 

Fun Item #5: For the guys, rate international soccer WAGs (wives and girlfriends of soccer players) here.

World Cup: US v. England

Let's clear up one thing first: the pub Rob and I went to yesterday didn't actually run out of beer. They had run out of beer on tap, but somehow managing to find plenty of bottled beer. I was actually more worried about them running out of ice. Rob and I were watching in a large tent outside the bar where several large flat screen TVs had been set up. It was a typically hot summer day in Houston and the tent was packed with soccer fans, sitting and standing shoulder to shoulder. The combination of the heat of the day and number of people made the tent incredibly hot. I kept scooping ice out of the buckets full of beer bottles and letting it melt on my head and down my back to try in vain to stay cool.

But it was a great atmosphere. US fans outnumbered English fans about 6-1 but every one was in great spirit and was completely into the game. I sat next to an English fan and he and I chatted throughout the game and shook hands afterwards. (Update: You can pick me out in the center back of this photo from the Houston Chronicle. I'm to the right of and English fan wearing a white shirt; mine is red.)

As for the game itself, I have to start with the goalkeeping. Last week I said of Tim Howard: "Goalkeeper: Tim Howard is the clear #1 keeper and one of the top 10 in the world. He will have to play well to keep the English at bay." I think he proved why he is considered among the best in the world with his man-of-the-match performance yesterday.  (No word yet on how serious his injury is or if he will play against Slovenia on Friday.) I also said in an earlier post: "Every English fan wishes they had Tim Howard in goal." I think Robert Green's horrific gaffe proved why that is also true.

I wonder, as Green was watching the ball trickle over the goal line, if he had a moment like ones in the Nike "Write the Future" ads. I bet he imagined himself like Wayne Rooney in the ad, disgraced in England and living out the the rest of his days with a scruffy beard in a trailer park. 

Rooney himself had an OK game. The US defense were clearly concerned about him and did a good job keeping him from getting clear looks at goal.

The US also did well not to fold after coughing up a goal in the first 5 minutes. You may recall that 4 years ago, the US gave up a similarly early goal and went on to lose their opening game 3-0 against the Czech Republic. The Americans kept their heads up, fought back and got lucky on their goal just before half time. But every team needs a little luck to succeed in the World Cup. The good teams take advantage of their good fortune, just like the US did in hanging on for a draw against a favored opponent.

I thought the English coach, Capello, made a few curious coaching decisions. He pulled James Milner after only 30 minutes (coaches rarely make subs that early unless a player is injured) and he had to sub defender Ledley King at half time (recall that King is the guy whose knees are so balky that he doesn't practice during the week). King's replacement, Jamie Carrager, was absolutely skinned by Altidore in the second half and bailed out by a reaction save by Green and the goal post.

The English team is probably disappointed that they didn't go on to win a game in which they scored just minutes in. And the Americans are probably pleased and proud they battled to back to tie. Overall, I think a tie was a fair result as neither team played measurably better than the other.

Slovenia beat Algeria earlier today 1-0, so they now top the group. The US plays Slovenia on Friday and will expect to win to earn the full three points from that game.

If you want to read some good post-match comments from some online soccer writers, here are a few  links:

The Guardian: "But if the USA were not producing too much to trouble the opposition defence, then neither were England. Rooney was conspicuously quiet, struggling to get into the game or even to get hold of the ball, and there were signs of an old problem returning with Gerrard and Frank Lampard being pushed back too deep and the front two becoming isolated as a result."

Sports Illustrated:  "The key group game for the U.S. was always going to be the next one against Slovenia, and that remains the case. If the favored Americans can avoid a letdown against Slovenia, they could take four points into the third game against Algeria and be in a golden position to advance from the group–and perhaps even win it."

ESPN: "The U.S. admittedly got lucky but played well enough to deserve its good fortune."

Halftime at the Richmond Arms

The pub just ran out of beer.

World Cup: Links

The opening game of the World Cup (Mexico v. South Africa) is about 24 hours away. Here are a few links I recommend clicking on:

Slate offers a longer explanation of why we call it soccer and an interesting story of American soccer in the 1920s.

Grant Wahl, probably the best American soccer writer and author of the Beckham Experiment, previews the World Cup for Sports Illustrated.

The New York Times has a good story about US coach Bob Bradley.

Are the English fans, media and players overconfident? Martin Rogers explores that question.

ESPN has its soccer writers answer 5 key questions about the US team. ESPN also has a great video feature with interviews from guys who have scored in the championship matches of past World Cups.

Finally, here's a schedule for all the games on ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC.

World Cup: U-S-A! U-S-A!

ESPN's the Sports Guy made a good point about rooting for sports teams a few years ago. I can't find a like to the column but his point was this: when we root for a sports team, we're almost always rooting for the jersey the athletes are wearing. Because the guys playing for the team are just employees -- it's their job. And chances are, in a couple of seasons these same guys you were rooting for so vociferously will be playing for your most hated rival.

This happened in baseball when Johnny Damon switched from the Red Sox to the Yankees. It happened in MLS when Landon Donovan moved from San Jose to LA. There are still examples of guys who play for the same team their entire careers and become very strongly identified with that franchise, like Kobe Bryant with the Lakers or Peyton Manning with the Colts.

But how many Packer fans ever thought they'd see Brett Favre trotting onto the field wearing the purple and gold of the Minnesota Vikings? Favre was considered the embodiment of the Green Bay Packers. But really, he was just wearing a green and yellow jersey for many years. It was his job.

This is leading up to why the World Cup is such a special, unique sporting event. Nearly every single player in the WC makes his living (and a very handsome one) playing for his club team. Just like in American sports, a player will leave one team for more money to play on another team. Cristiano Ronaldo became the highest paid player in the world when he left Man U for Real Madrid. Holland's Wesley Snjeider has played for Ajax, Real Madrid and Inter Milan (3 of the biggest clubs in the world) just in the last 4 years.

But if you ask any player in the world, his biggest dream is to play and do well in the World Cup. It's the pinnacle of any soccer player's career and no player is ever considered among the best unless he succeeds at the World Cup. Yes, the players often have large incentives built into their contracts with their countires. But I bet most players would play in the World Cup for free.

In one sense, the WC resembles the Olympics in that athletes compete for the love of the sport and their country. But in the WC, the stakes are much higher. If you are an American fan rooting for American athletes in the Olympics, you have lots of options. If Apollo Ono doesn't do well in speed skating, maybe Lindsey Vonn will medal in the downhill.

But if your team doesn't advance out of the group stage, the World Cup is over after 3 games. And once you get to the knock out stages, one bad game (or even one bad bounce of the ball) and the tournament is over.

In that way, the World Cup is much like the game of soccer itself. The wait for the World Cup (every 4 years)  can be agonizing; the wait for a goal in a game can be agonizing. Some teams never make it to the World Cup; some teams never score in a game. A World Cup can turn for a team in an instant; a close game can turn for a team in an instant. It's periods of tension punctuated by brief moments of brilliance or agony. You can tell this when you see the look on the face of a player who has just scored a vital goal: the combination or euphoria, relief, joy, exhilaration and disbelief is unlike any other feeling in sports.

Now, the US doesn't fit the model of most other countries on the planet when it comes to soccer. There are some hard core fans (like me) who follow US soccer religiously. But we are clearly in the minority. So the World Cup is the one time in an American soccer player's life when he can actually feel the entire country get behind him and his team. This World Cup is generating unprecedented coverage in the US and the players seem to be aware of that. And they know that a win against England on Saturday, while not critical for their chances to advance from the group, has the potential to sweep much of the country up in soccer fever in a way that it hasn't since the Women's World Cup in 1999.

I broke down the English team the other day. Here's how I think the US team will look and perform on Saturday (2:30 pm EST on ABC).

Goalkeeper: Tim Howard is the clear #1 keeper and one of the top 10 in the world. He will have to play well to keep the English at bay.

Defense: Steve Cherundolo is a cagey veteran who will play on the right and venture forward into offense. Jay Demerit is a Matt Damon look alike who is a tough and tenacious center back. He will be paired with Oguchi Onyewu (Gooch) or Clarence Goodson. The towering (6'4" 220 lbs) Gooch is still recovering from a serious knee injury and may not play. If he does, his form will go a long way to determine how well the US defense can fend off Wayne Rooney, Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard. Carlos Bocanegra is the left back and captain of the team. He is not especially fast and will use his positioning and experience to manage speedy English wingers.

Midfield: This is the strength of the US team. Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey will attack from the wings. They are also prone to cutting inside, surging forward toward goal and switching sides. Their form will dictate the success of the American attack.  The center of the park will be manned by the coach's son Michael Bradley. He is a smart, tough ball-winner who can also shoot well from distance. Any charges of nepotism are completely unfounded. Teaming with Bradley will likely be Maurice Edu or Ricardo Clark. Both are rangy tacklers who will work with Bradley to break up English attacks down the middle. They are fairly similar players whose primary weaknesses are holding the ball under pressure and making pin-point passes.

Forward: 20-year old Josy Altidore seems to be recovered from last week's ankle injury and will likley start. He is a big strong kid who is used to the rough and tumble English game. Red-hot Edson Buddle is who I expect to play along side him. But it would not surprise me to see the fleet Robbie Findley instead. Findley's speed may be used to stretch the English defense.  Findley would also be an option off the bench, as would Herculez Gomez, who was kicked to the curb by MLS a year ago but found new life in the Mexican league. He has scored primarily as a sub for his Mexican team and has done the same for the US in recent exhibition games.

If every US player is healthy and if they play a relatively mistake-free and smart game, the US team can beat England. Last summer, in fact, the US beat Spain, who was the #1 ranked team in the World at the time, in the Confederations Cup. So on their day, the US players can compete with the world's best. That said, I (and most US fans) would be happy with a tie. A loss would be a disappointment, but would not end the US WC hopes.

Whatever the outcome on Saturday, I still expect the US to advance out of their group. Failure to advance would be a crushing disappointment. 

Here's who I think will advance from all the WC groups:

Group A: South Africa, Mexico
Group B: Argentina, Nigeria
Group C: England, US
Group D: Germany, Serbia
Group E: Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Paraguay
Group G: Brazil, Portugal (unless Drogba pulls a Willis Reed, then Ivory Coast instead of Portugal)
Group H: Spain, Switzerland

World Cup: Analysis of England

On paper, the England team is better than the US. Wayne Rooney is one of the best strikers in the world and is easily their most important player. If Rooney gets hot and start pumping in goals, the English could beat the US and go far in the tournament.

Rooney's teammates play for the biggest clubs in England: Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United. Many have played in previous World Cups and in the elite European club tournament called the Champions League.

And Fabio Capello, the Italian who coaches the English team, has a substantial managerial resume that includes some of the top club teams in Europe (AC Milan, Real Madrid, Juventus).

But... the English team isn't invulnerable.

A Guardian writer, when asked what England's weaknesses are (the obvious strength being Rooney) replied: "I'd say goalkeeper, right back, mobility in central defence, no left-footed wide player, only one good striker and general innate system of play. Anything else?"

I think he may be overstating the team's weaknesses, but England are not unbeatable. And they are surely tie-able (is that even a word?).

The likely starting 11 for England will reveal their weak spots:

GK: Green or James or Hart
No one really knows who will start in goal. David James is 39 and is nicknamed "Calamity James" because his is prone to comedic goalkeeping errors. Joe Hart is talented but young and inexperienced. Green has only played 10 times for England. Who knows? Maybe the 3 keepers will play rock-paper-scissors to decide who starts. Every English fan wishes they had Tim Howard in goal.

D: Johnson, King, Terry, A. Cole
Ledley King is like Steve McNair, who used to skip practice to preserve his body for NFL games on Sundays. King has a painful knee ailment that causes him to skip most training to save himself for games. John Terry is probably this biggest jerk on the English team. In 2001, he was fined by his club team after drunkenly harassing grieving American tourists in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. And just this year, he was stripped of the captaincy of the English team after it was revealed that he had an affair with the former girlfriend of another English player, Wayne Bridge. Bridge subsequently refused to play for the English team. Since this affair became public, Terry has struggled for Chelsea (his club team).

M: Lennon, Gerrard, Lampard, J. Cole
Gerrard and Lampard are 2 of the best midfielders in the game. But they rarely play well together for England. It might be because they play very similarly, or because they each have such massive egos that they can't allow the other to succeed. 

F: Rooney, Crouch or Heskey
As noted, Rooney is one of the world's best goal scorers. But Capello has yet to settle on a strike partner for Rooney. Crouch is a 6'7" beanpole who doesn't even start for his club team (but scores often for England). Heskey has played more than 50 games for England but scored only 7 goals. 

Rooney, meanwhile, has a fierce temper. He was red-carded in England's quarterfinal match against Portugal 4 years ago and has seen red for Man United as well.

Might we see this next week? US fans probably hope so... 

Really, the result against England is important but not critical. As I've said before, if the US can muster a tie, they'll be in good position to get results from Algeria and Slovenia and advance to the knock-out stage.

One more thing: the term soccer, much derided by Euro-snobs who insist on calling it football, actually has its roots in England.  The word soccer grew out of the phrase Association Football, which is what the sport was called in the 19th century in England. "Soca" was an abbreviation for Association (Assoc.) and at some point picked up the extra -er on the end. Although it was not used as heavily as football in England, it was apparently a common term for the game in 19th century England.

When English football started being played in the US, there was already a sport called football here, so soccer became the chosen word in the US. While most other countries call it football (or a local variant, like futbol in Spanish speaking countries) other countries still use other words besides football. In Canada and Australia, the game is also called soccer. And in Italy it's called calcio (which translates roughly to kick).

So the next time some Euro-snob complains about the ignorant Americans who call it "sawker," tell him to blame the English -- they're the ones who came up with term in the first place.

World Cup: Odds and Ends

Video: If you haven't seen this "Write the Future" ad by Nike, watch it now:



It stars Didier Drogba, (who may be out of the WC), Wayne Rooney (England's best player), Italy's Fabio Cannavaro (hero of Italy's 2006 WC triumph), Frank Ribery (France's livewire winger), Ronaldinho (Brazil's toothy playmaker who didn't make the WC squad -- whoops!) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal's star/primadonna). For soccer fans it's a complete treat, with lots of little inside jokes and cameos (like the US's Landon Donovan and Tim Howard). And for non-soccer fans there's Homer Simpson ("Ronal-D'oh!").

The conceit of the ad is that it shows different soccer start playing and imagining what will happen to them if they make the play (like get a stature erected their honor) or don't (get fat, grow a beard and live in a trailer park).

The Ball: Much has been made about the new Adidas ball. Many plays have come forward to complain about the new ball, saying it's too light and moves around a lot in flight. Goalkeepers are particularly cranky about it. This happens every WC. A new ball is introduced just before the tournament, players complain about it and then the better teams go on to win anyway.

Obviously I haven't tried to new ball myself (they sell for more than $100 -- no thanks). But if they really are trickier to deal with, we might see a few more goals and a few more upsets. What's not to like?

The US Team: The Yanks beat the Socceroos (Australia) 3-1 on Saturday in their final warm-up match. The US team looked good, if a bit profligate, in attack and shaky on defense. Meanwhile, England played a warm-up game against a South African club team and won 3-0. Reports suggest England did not look strong, but it's hard for me to say much more having not watched the game.

As far as Saturday's game, England are the clear favorites. And they should be. But, the US has to be hoping to get a draw out of this game. A win would be massive and a loss would be a bit of a disappointment (the US could still advance with a loss). In fact, both teams may play fairly conservatively as both of them expect to get out of the group and would probably be happy to walk away with a tie and no injuries. I'll break down both teams later this week.

World Cup: Injuries

Injuries to key players has been the biggest story the last couple of days. Here's the latest:

English team captain and seasoned (in other words, old) central defender Rio Ferdinand has been ruled out of the World Cup due to a knee injury. Some England football pundits are no doubt wondering if the remaining defenders can hold together the English backline without Ferdinand. The Guardian isn't sure and even namechecks 2 of the US's fleetest players:

Mainly this is a blow for England's central defence, not least the balance of personnel. John Terry, Matthew Upson and Jamie Carragher are not the type you'd back in a straight foot race with Arjen Robben or, come to mention it, Landon Donovan or Robbie Findley, allegedly the fastest man in the MLS. Ledley King is quick enough when he gets going, but is shorn of decisive acceleration.

I'm not sure this is such a big blow -- Ferdninand was old and coming off a season with Manchester United in which he was kept out of many games due to a bad back. And many of the comments on the BBC's web site echo my thoughts. Here's a sample:

Ferdinand was a shadow of his imperious self this season, he looked laboured and easily turned. But in international football experience is king, and his influence will be missed.

It's really too early to say whether this will be detrimental to England. You need a great defence to win a World Cup these days, but England's back ups are still good players.

Dawson and King have both had better seasons than Ferdinand, Upson or Carragher. I don't think Ferdinand is the worst player for England to lose at this stage.

So what does this mean for the US -- England's first opponent? Well, much of the our fortunes rest on the recently injured ankle of forward Josy Altidore. By all accounts, the injury seems minor, but it doesn't look like he'll play in the US's final warm up game on Saturday against Australia (ESPN2, 8:30 am EST). But every US fan will hope the Josy is healthy and match-fit by June 12. Even though he's only 20 years, old Josy is the US's most experienced option at forward -- he has more games played and more goals scored than the other 3 forwards (Gomez, Buddle and Findley) combined.

The other big injury news: Ivory Coast striker (and Vanity Fair cover model) Didier Drogba apparently broke his elbow in an exhibition game against Japan. Some reports suggest that he may be able to play in the WC anyway. But if he can't this is a huge blow to the Ivory Coast, one of the African teams many had thought had a chance to go deep into the tournament.

Drogba was the leading goal scorer in the English Preimier League in 2009-2010 and is considered one of the best and most intimidating strikers in the world. He is also a controversial figure. He has been credited to helping bring some measure of peace to his home country. But he is also viewed as an arrogant, petulant, ill-tempered glory hog.

Whatever your opinion of Drogba, the World Cup will be a little less interesting if he's not able to play.

World Cup: Goalkeeper Tim Howard

If Tim Howard had been born in Manchester instead of New Jersey, he would be starting for the English World Cup team. He's that good. Here's a nice video about him from the New Yorker of all places (I haven't read the story referenced in the video since I haven't received the issue yet).

World Cup: Meet Landon Donovan

Even casual soccer fans in the US have at least heard of Landon Donovan. Here's a pretty good piece from CBS News profiling Landon. It's geared toward people who aren't soccer nuts, so I recommend it to those who want a little intro to one of the US's best players (the other best players on the team are Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Michael Bradley).


Watch CBS News Videos Online